The latest Field Poll shows support for the gay marriage ban on the California ballot this fall is trailing:
Proposition 8, the constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage in California, is opposed by 51 percent of likely voters with 42 percent in favor, according to a new Field Poll.
Those results put the proposed ban in a politically perilous position in the Nov. 4 election, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll.
“Starting out behind is usually an ominous sign for a proposition,” DiCamillo said. “Over 90 percent of propositions that start out behind get taken down.”
It’s a long time till November, of course, and there will be a concerted campaign by amendment supporters to convince people that the sky will fall if gay people get married. But California is a place where lots of people live in large urban areas where there are lots of openly gay people, and the promises of vague doom don’t tend to hold up well against the banal reality of Bob and Jeff registering at Pottery Barn.
You can see why marriage foes want to get the ban into the state constitution, though:
The new poll found a predictable partisan division: Republicans support the constitutional ban 68 percent to 27 percent while Democrats oppose it 63 percent to 30 percent. Nonpartisan and minor-party members are even more strongly against it, 66 percent to 27 percent.
DiCamillo said he was not surprised that unaffiliated voters opposed Proposition 8 more than Democrats because those voters tend to be younger than Democrats or Republicans.
Across ideological divides, concern about gay marriage tends to drop off among younger people. They don’t seem to see what the big deal is. So clearly, if you want to make sure that the homos don’t get married, you want to get it into the constitution – where it’s hard to get rid of – before your supporters die off.
My guess is that in twenty years or so, people will be wondering, “Why was everyone so worked up about this, anyway?”
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